In August, China's total FeNi+NPI imports were 522,300 mt in physical content, down 36.4% MoM [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in August 2024, China's total FeNi+NPI imports were 522,300 mt in physical content, down 36.4% MoM and 42.6% YoY. In terms of metal content, the total imports in August were 65,000 mt (Ni contained), down 36.3% MoM and 45.7% YoY.

By category, the decrease in imports in August was mainly concentrated in NPI, with NPI imports at 495,800 mt in physical content, down 37.5% MoM and 42.8% YoY. In August, Indonesian nickel ore resources remained relatively tight, with no new releases from RKAB, leading to limited NPI exports, mainly concentrated in the Weda Bay area. Additionally, transportation routes in Weda Bay were affected by rainfall, causing congestion in the transportation of finished products from various production projects in the area, delaying some shipments. Furthermore, according to SMM, due to the continuous fluctuation and decline of nickel prices in August, losses at traditional overseas FeNi smelters further intensified, leading to a decline in production. The decrease in FeNi supply forced some European stainless steel mills to procure NPI from Indonesia. This trend is expected to accelerate as Indonesian NPI capacity gradually expands. Entering September, the newly added NPI capacity in Indonesia is gradually ramping up, potentially alleviating the tight raw material situation at Indonesian smelters and increasing production. Coupled with the domestic stainless steel production peak in H2, maintaining high demand for NPI, it is expected that Indonesian NPI exports to China in September will recover to the high levels seen in H1.

Regarding FeNi, the import volume in August was 26,500 mt in physical content, down 5.9% MoM and 38.9% YoY. In terms of metal content, it was 6,500 mt (Ni contained), down 6.0% MoM and 42.5% YoY. From the perspective of import sources, in August, imports from Colombia, New Caledonia, and Brazil increased by 10.0%, 15.5%, and 46.8% MoM, respectively, while imports from other countries declined. According to the SMM survey, one of the mainstream FeNi products on the market is South 32. From the cumulative import volume in the first eight months, it increased by 21.0% YoY. FeNi imports from Brazil decreased by 42.9% YoY in the first eight months of this year, mainly due to the shutdown of the Vale project in Q1 and its recovery in Q2, with shipments expected to arrive in China in September. It is expected that FeNi imports will increase in September, with the increment mainly concentrated in Brazil.